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Acheson Group February 17, 2021 0 Comments

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TAG’s COVID-19 Risk Matrix Confirms Downward Trend

TAG’s weekly COVID-19 Risk Matrix is confirming what has been reported recently in the media – the trends are continuing downward. Transmission rates are less than one in virtually every state – indicating that those infected with COVID are infecting no more than one other person, thus resulting in much lower spread of the virus.

That said, TAG continues its recommendation to keep doing what you’re doing. We may still see additional impacts of the variants, and there is some concern about the cases of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) resulting from COVID-19 that are increasing at a striking rate.

TAG Risk Matrix.

Based on TAG’s matrices since last week:

  • The Government Stringency Index is 46 this week. It is the same as the previous week’s GSI. There are no states in the U.S. where businesses are completely closed. Eight (8) states’ (Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Oregon) businesses are in mixed opening stages.
  • Six (6) states are in the Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50) (see Table 1 on Case Rates/100K population). This is down from 12 last week. States in the High and Highest-Risk Quadrants are Alabama, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, and South Dakota.
  • In Figure 1, this week, we compare the case rate/100K in the population to the percentage of a state’s population that has been vaccinated.

[Table 1]TAG COVID-19 Risk Matrix - Table 1

[Figure 1]TAG COVID-19 Risk Matrix - Figure 1

  • Eleven (11) states have a TPR ≥10% and a case rate ≥ 25/100K people (see Table 2; Figure 2). This is down from 15 states last week. This indicates that testing may not be adequate to fully characterize the true severity of the outbreak in the states. On the other hand, 13 states have a TPR < 10% and a case rate≥ 25/100K people indicates adequate testing that is likely finding most symptomatic cases of illnesses.

[Table 2]

TAG COVID-19 Risk Matrix - Table 2

  • In Figure 2, we compare case rate/100K in the population to the number of COVID-19 tests administered and change in Test Positive Rates.

[Figure 2]TAG COVID-19 Risk Matrix - Figure 2

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