Key Points:

• In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we discuss new studies on COVID-19 projections for the next few months and how businesses should be preparing. Read more below.
• Both the U.S. and the E.U. have indicated support for waiving COVID vaccine intellectual property rights.
• The Red Cross is sounding the alarm of the rise of COVID-19 cases in Nepal (including in Mt. Everest base camps). There is some spillover from India similar to what was seen in S. America with the P1 variants spilling from Brazil to neighboring countries.
• The Premier of Ontario (Canada) has approached Michigan’s Governor “about the possibility of having essential workers” cross the border from Canada to be vaccinated in Michigan.
• CIDRAP reports that three vaccines (and their boosters) are showing promise against COVID-19 variants.
• The CDC predicts that as we continue vaccinations, it is likely that COVID-19 activity in the U.S. will sharply decline – if most of the country maintains a moderate adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including physical distancing. (we also discuss that in today’s Recommendations for Industry)!
• A new study from IHME estimates that the global death toll from COVID-19 is probably twice as high as official estimates due to underreporting (of cases and deaths) and insufficient testing. STAT News discusses this further.
• Pfizer/BioNTech announced today that they have submitted an application for full FDA-approval for the COVID-19 vaccine; if this is approved, it will be the first COVID-19 vaccine in the US to receive full FDA approval.
• Public Health News:
  • In 2020, Ireland has seen an increase in E. coli, Cryptospordium, and Campylobacter cases.
  • There is currently an E. coli outbreak in Washington state that has affected at least 7 children; the source is currently unknown. 

A COVID Projection for Summer – and TAG Advice

Although the first months of 2021 saw a rapid decline in COVID-19 in the US, cases began increasing again in March and early April despite vaccinations as the nation saw a spread of variants and relaxation of preventive strategies, i.e., nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

Now, data from six models of a new MMWR report issued May 5 indicate that low NPI adherence could lead to substantial increases in severe COVID-19 outcomes, even with improved vaccination coverage.

Even moderate reductions in NPI adherence were shown to undermine vaccination-related gains in the next 2–3 months, while decreased NPI adherence was projected to lead to surges in hospitalizations and deaths. With all the models attributing increased transmission in many parts of the US to the relaxation of mitigation strategies and the increasing prevalence of more transmissible variants, the study projects that the variants will drive continued increases in case counts in the coming months – potentially negating recent gains in transmission control. (See Table: COVID-19 projection scenarios on page 2 of the report for the full breakdown.)

Based on these findings, high vaccination coverage and compliance with NPIs and public health messaging to encourage both are seen as essential to control the pandemic and prevent increases in related hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months. If this is done, projections would see sharp decreases in COVID cases by the end of July.

TAG’s Take. For businesses, TAG sees this as carefully bridging all of this to bring about the substantial business recovery we all hope to see in 2021. We need to traverse where we are today with where we hope to be by fall taking into consideration vaccination rates, as well as facility factors as discussed below and in TAG’s April 26 newsletter to work through the safe reduction of NPIs/protective strategies.

Although there is significant scientific evidence of the airborne transmission of COVID-19 through the breathing of shared indoor air, none of the public health organizations published comprehensive safety guidelines incorporating all the relevant variables. To remedy this, MIT scientists developed an app to calculate safe exposure times and occupancy levels for indoor spaces. The app includes calculation of the following key variables:

• The volume of a room with amount of outside and recirculated air , including MERV filtration levels, and relative humidity
• Percent vaccinated in the population that will be using the space)
• Mask usage and level of mask filtration

While it provides a good basis for determining safe levels, there is some complexity to working through the calculations of the app. But TAG can help – give us a call for assistance with that and other aspects of setting best practices for the continued protection of your workers and your business.

• In Wednesday’s Recommendations for Industry, we discussed this week’s COVID Matrix statistics and what this means to businesses seeking to move forward in putting COVID behind us (as much as feasibly possible). Read more here.
• Every adult in Ontario Canada will be eligible to book a COVID-19 vaccine appointment by May 24.
• A study recently published in Science has found that those previously infected with COVID-19 who later received at least one dose of the Pfizer vaccine were found to have significant neutralizing antibodies effective against both the B117 and B1351 variants.
• COVID-19 continues to highlight the inequities inherent throughout our world between poor and rich countries, NYT breaks down these issues.
• In the U.S., President Biden’s new COVID-19 goal is to get 70% of the U.S. population vaccinated by July 4^th. That’ll be done by increasing funds for access to “walk-in appointments”, community vaccination sites, increased vaccine access, and vaccine education in hard-to-reach places including rural health clinics.
• NYT reports that, in the first three months of 2021, Pfizer has generated $3.5B in revenue! They are now hoping to seek clearance for their vaccine to be used in children aged 2 – 11 by September.
• The CDC has updated its advice regarding “People with Certain Medical Conditions” as it pertains to COVID-19. See more information here.
• Children now account for about 22% of new U.S. COVID-19 cases; this is up from 3% of cases last year at this time.
• In the public health realm:
  • The DRC has declared the end to its Ebola outbreak which first began in February 2021!
  • The first genetically modified mosquitoes have been released in the U.S. in Florida. The concept is that these mosquitoes will breed with other mosquitoes that carry severe diseases like (Zika, yellow fever, etc.) and eliminate.

• In Monday’s Recommendations for Industry, we introduce TAG’s new infectious disease and public health coverage, in addition to our COVID-19 coverage and perspectives. Read more here.
• The S. TSA is extending its mask mandate for U.S. transportation (e.g., airplanes, buses, trains, etc.) through mid-September (September 13).
• Starting Tuesday, May 04, 2021, the U.S. state department puts a “Do Not Travel” restriction from those coming from India.
• Over 100M individuals in the U.S. are now vaccinated. This is juxtaposed with declining vaccination rates. As such, public health experts do not believe the U.S. will achieve herd immunity.
• The double-mutant variant first identified in India has now been found in the U.S. in Michigan.
• NYT breaks down a “summer travel” perspective, including, should you consider traveling and what might that look like?