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COVID Transmission Rates Increasing State by State

Key Points:

  • In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we discuss COVID Transmission Rates Increasing State by State. Read more below.
  • Do you want to know when different sectors of the food and agriculture world can be vaccinated? Food manufacturing versus food service versus food retail (grocery)? Check out the 50-state chart updated this past Monday March 23, 2021, here.
  • The CDC has published a new release to “Help Stop the Spread of Coronavirus and Protect Your Family”. The steps include:
    • Getting a COVID-19 vaccine.
    • Washing your hands often with plain soap and water.
    • Covering your mouth and nose with a mask when around others.
    • Avoiding crowds and practice social distancing (stay at least 6 feet apart from others).
  • With increasing case counts, hospitalizations, and variant spread, the province of Ontario declared on Monday that it has entered a third way of the pandemic.
  • A recent comprehensive review in Nature of current literature on post-acute COVID-19 “discusses relevant considerations for the multidisciplinary care of COVID-19 survivors and propose a framework for the identification of those at high risk for post-acute COVID-19 and their coordinated management through dedicated COVID-19 clinic”. The study identified and characterized COVID-19 long-haulers, “a syndrome characterized by persistent symptoms and/or delayed or long-term complications beyond 4 weeks from the onset of symptoms”. CIDRAP also summarizes the findings in which, “long-haulers need dedicated clinics” like as is currently being developed in Italy.
  • Brazil’s COVID-19 is affecting nearby countries. 26 of the 27 country’s federal units have reached 85 – 90% of ICU bed occupancy, and other countries like Venezuela, Bolivia, Peru, and Uruguay are also seeing rises in cases. In Brazil, the P1 SARS-CoV-2 variant is prevalent. [CIDRAP / NPR]
  • Texas announced today that beginning next Monday, all adults in the state will be eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine.
  • A recent study published in Science found that counties in Slovakia that implemented multiple rounds of population-wide rapid antigen tests, saw a decrease in prevalence of positive tests by more than 50% within one week. In that time, primary schools and workplaces were still open! “Modelling indicated that this decrease could not be explained solely by infection control measures but required the additional impact of isolation and quarantine of household members of those testing positive.”

Recommendations for Industry

COVID Transmission Rates Increasing State by State

Each Wednesday, we have been publishing overviews of the state-by-state status of COVID-19 case and transmission rates based on TAG matrices using the same methodologies week over week. At the beginning of 2021, our data showed rates beginning to plateau – however, that changed in March with more states showing an increase in transmission rates each week.

The transmission rate is the rate at which the virus is transmitted from one infected person to others. Thus, any number above 1.0 indicates a growing problem. Following are the number of states with transmission rates above 1.0 each week of March:



# of states

above 1.0









The growing number of states with increasing transmission rates provides another reason for businesses to continue all preventive measures, and – as CDC’s new guidance states – take the additional step of getting a COVID vaccine.

Risk Matrix

Based on TAG’s matrices since last week:

  • The Government Stringency Index is 41 this week. It is lower than last week’s 42, indicating a decrease in government stringencies, evident by the lifting of restrictions. Seven (7) states’ (Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Oregon) businesses are in mixed opening stages. These states are indicated by an asterisk (*) in the matrix. No states’ businesses are closed completely.
  • In Figure 1, this week, we compare the case rate/100K (Table 1) in the population to the percentage of a state’s population that has been vaccinated (with first and second doses) (Figure 1). Table 2 and 3 compare last week and this week’s percentage of states’ populations that have received their first and second vaccinations, respectively.

[Table 1]

[Figure 1]

[Table 2]

[Table 3]

  • 6 states have a TPR < 10% and a case rate≥ 25/100K people, indicating that adequate testing is likely finding most symptomatic cases of illnesses. These states are New Jersey (TPR: 8%, 44.8 cases/100K); Michigan (TPR: 7%, 30.4 cases/100K); New York (TPR: 5%, 30.4 cases/100K); Delaware (TPR: 4%, 28 cases/100K); Rhode Island (TPR: 2%, 34.2 cases/100K); and Massachusetts (TPR: 2%, 25.6 cases/100K).

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