In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we discuss the flattened rate of COVID transmission increasing the urgency to maintain all protections and TAG’s US Risk Matrix. There is potential that cases may be rising. Read More Here.
Although COVAX immunizations have begun in Africa and there has been a 6-week decline in global COVID-19 cases, COVID-19 cases are rising again.
A recent Public Health England (non-peer-reviewed) study found that, in real life situations, both the Pfizer and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines are effective against COVID-19 and offer protection against the B117 variant.
A research letter printed in JAMA found that those who had previously been infected with COVID-19 – then later received a single dose of mRNA vaccine, had “higher antibody titer responses”. It is important to note that the sample size is small (n = 59) and there is still much more research needed. However, the researchers state that “given the ongoing worldwide vaccine shortages, the results inform suggestions for a single-dose vaccination strategy for those with prior COVID-19 or placing them lower on the vaccination priority list.”
On Tuesday, Brazil recorded its highest single-day toll of the pandemic at 1,7000 COVID-19 related deaths. The accelectation of the pandemic in Brazil (due to the variant’s spread) is something that TAG will be keeping an eye on. Preliminary studies indicate that the variant may be more contagious and may also reinfect those who had been previously infected with other variants.
COVID Rates Have Plateaued, May Rise. Don’t Relax Your Protections!
In January and February, COVID-19 case rates were steadily decreasing. However, March rates have become flat with indications that rates are likely to start increasing due to two key factors:
Transmission of the variants are continuing to increase, becoming the predominant strains in some areas.
Some states are relaxing, or even completing eliminating, control requirements.
With these two key factors, TAG is not only continuing to recommend that businesses maintain all COVID protections – as we have for months, we are stating it louder and stronger, with an even higher level of urgency. Don’t relax your standards yet! You don’t need to increase them, just don’t reduce them – even if your state is.
TAG Risk Matrix.
Based on TAG’s matrices since last week:
The Government Stringency Index is 43 this week. It is lower than last week’s 46, indicating that there has been a decrease in government stringencies. This is reflected as states are opening back up. There are no states in the U.S. where businesses are completely closed. Eight (8) states’ (Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Oregon) businesses are in mixed opening stages.
Eight (8) states are in the Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50). This is up from 5 of last week. States in the High and Highest-Risk Quadrants are Alabama, Idaho, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Texas.
In Figure 1, this week, we compare the case rate/100K (Table 1) in the population the to percentage of a state’s population that has been vaccinated (with first and second doses). Table 2 and 3 compare last week and this week’s percentage of states’ populations that have received their first and second vaccinations, respectively.
[Figure 1]
[Table 1]
[Table 2]
[Table 3]
Two (2) states have a TPR ≥10% and a case rate ≥ 25/100K people (Table 4). This is down from 3 states last week. This indicates that testing may not be adequate to fully characterize the true severity of the outbreak in the states. On the other hand, 7 states have a TPR < 10% and a case rate≥ 25/100K people indicates adequate testing that is likely finding most symptomatic cases of illnesses.
[Table 4]
In Figure 2, we compare the case rate/100K in the population to the number of COVID-19 tests administered and changes in Test Positive Rates
[Figure 2]
In Case You Missed It
In Monday’s Recommendations for Industry, we discuss FDA’s issuance of an EUA for the J&J Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine for those 18 years of age and older. Read more here.
A recent survey of the U.S. population finds 55% of adults have either received one dose or will get it as soon as they can. This is a ~20% increase since December!
COVID testing in the U.S. has fallen by 30% in recent weeks. Some places are testing half as many people as in November and other sites are only testing at 35% of capacity. Some reasons for the COVID testing decreases can be attributed to potentially fewer exposures, less travel, bad weather leading to closed sites, increased vaccine rollout, pandemic fatigue, but also a decrease in infections and spread.
The New York Times reports that “Every coronavirus variant of concern to researchers around the world has been circulating in Houston [Texas] at a low level for at least six to eight weeks, a new study has found. Houston is the first U.S. city to find all of the variants, including those recently reported in California and New York and the ones found in Brazil, Britain and South Africa”.
Canada is set to receive 6.5 million Covid-19 vaccines by end of March.
In last Wednesday’s Recommendations for Industry, we discuss post-vaccine symptomatic return to work for those receiving the vaccine and not feeling well. In addition, we discuss the US Risk Matrix. [Read More]
Key Points:
Recommendations for Industry
COVID Rates Have Plateaued, May Rise. Don’t Relax Your Protections!
In January and February, COVID-19 case rates were steadily decreasing. However, March rates have become flat with indications that rates are likely to start increasing due to two key factors:
With these two key factors, TAG is not only continuing to recommend that businesses maintain all COVID protections – as we have for months, we are stating it louder and stronger, with an even higher level of urgency. Don’t relax your standards yet! You don’t need to increase them, just don’t reduce them – even if your state is.
TAG Risk Matrix.
Based on TAG’s matrices since last week:
[Figure 1]
[Table 1]
[Table 2]
[Table 3]
[Table 4]
[Figure 2]
In Case You Missed It
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